Since politicians are not rushing to microphones one can safely assume that progress is in fact actually being made. The deal that is starting to emerge is one that I think can pass the House but as Gabriel Malor point out is there enough time?
Quite simply, there isn't enough time for the Senate to consider a bill before the Thursday deadline . . . unless there's unanimous consent to waive the Senate rules. Here's what has to happen before the Senate can pass a bill raising the debt ceiling.
(1) The bill has to be drafted. Figure this takes a day.
(2) The bill has to be moved to the floor. This takes 3 days if it's a new bill that has to be calendared. It's faster if Sen. Reid amends a bill that's already on the calendar. It's also faster if the Senate takes up a bill from the House.
(3) Without unanimous consent, they'd need to file for cloture on the motion to proceed. Add a day, since a cloture vote has to be filed a day in advance of the vote.
(4) Without unanimous consent, they'd then have 30 hours of post-cloture debate.
(5) Without unanimous consent, they'd need to file cloture on the bill itself.
(6) Without unanimous consent, they'd then have 30 more hours of post-cloture debate.
(7) And then the Senate would get to vote on final passage of the bill.