Toomey leads Sestak 42% to 37%. It’s wider than the 51% to 49% edge Toomey earned over Sestak at the ballot box in 2010.
Toomey stays ahead because of a 10 point lead among independents and his ability to peel off 13% of Democrats. In southeast Pa., which includes Sestak’s base in Delaware County and Toomey’s base in the Lehigh Valley, the Republican runs ahead 42% to 41%.